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Liverpool enters Wednesday’s match at Aston Villa knowing that the victory would take them away from 10 arsenal points at the top of the Premier League table.
It would be a dominant advance, but the fight is not yet finished, arsenal that was still flowing. The side of Mikel Arteta are undefeated in the league Since early November.
Here, Telegraph Sport Evaluates five factors that could determine the result of the race for this year and predict how it will go to the end …
Triple Liverpool test
The following week, in which Liverpool has three Premier League matches, could be decisive. The side of Arne Slot goes to Aston Villa Wednesday and Manchester City on Sunday before welcoming Newcastle United in the middle of the week.
These three games are the most difficult league games – on paper, at least – that Liverpool will have until May. The villa is incoherent but is still a dangerous opponent, while City has shown panels in recent weeks (certainly with losses between the two) that they rediscover a form of league. The Pep Guardiola team has won three of its last four championship games, scoring 13 goals in these three victories.
Newcastle, on the other hand, is more than capable of harming a team. Anthony Gordon and Alexander Isak will have space to meet Anfield.
If Liverpool will slip, it seems very likely that they will slip now. Arsenal must be ready to capitalize.
Arsenal’s easier running -in
In terms of remaining lights for both sides, there is not much difference between Liverpool and Arsenal. The average current position of the remaining adversaries of Liverpool is 10.8 in the Premier League, while Arsenal is 10.5.
There is a significant difference, however, with regard to home games and outside. Of the six games outside Liverpool, five of them are against the teams currently 10th or more in the Premier League (Villa, City, Fulham, Chelsea and Brighton). They could all be dangerous trips.
The lighting outside of Arsenal are, however, much simpler. Of their six remaining outdoor games, four are against teams currently placed 14th or less (Manchester United, Everton, Ipswich Town and Southampton). The other two games outside Arsenal are in Nottingham Forest next week, then Liverpool in May.
History in favor of Liverpool
Liverpool supporters may feel more and more worried about the title race, as shown in the nervous victory on Sunday against the Wolves, but they can find themselves soothed by a historic precedent.
Only once in the history of the Premier League, a team took advantage of an advance of more than six points after 25 games and failed to lift the trophy. It was Newcastle United, which had a 12-point lead in 1995-1996, but finally finished four points behind Manchester United.
There have been nine other examples of a team with an advance of six points or more after 25 games, and on each of these occasions which was converted into a title victory. The last seven points advance at this stage of the season was Chelsea in 2014-15. Chelsea finished eight points in front of their nearest challenger.
How can Arsenal correspond to the Liverpool fire power?
If Arsenal has to fill the gap in next month, they will have to do it without four of their most important attack players. The injured Kai Havertz, Gabriel Jesus, Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli scored 23 league goals this season, which represents 45% of Arsenal’s goals in this league campaign.
Arteta’s most scores are the most scores are Mikel Merino and Leandro Trossard, who have each scored four goals in the Premier League this season.
In Liverpool, there is the opposite situation. The biggest challenge for the location is not to find attackers to score goals, but to choose the right attacker at the right time. Slot has six attackers of your choice, including the top first league scorer (and the main assistance supplier) Mohamed Salah.
Including Cody Gakpo, who will miss the match at Villa but who is “close” to the return, Slot has attackers with 49 goals combined in the championship between them this season. Arteta’s currently available attackers contributed to seven goals combined with each other.
Arsenal is therefore unlikely to burst the opposition teams with their attacker firepower. Rather, they will have to rely on their defensive file, which is currently the best of the Premier League (22 goals conceded, compared to the 24 of Liverpool).
Arsenal’s return heroes
Liverpool may be out of view of Arsenal when Saka and Martinelli return to action in northern London. Otherwise, however, the return of these wingers – and Saka in particular – could provide Arsenal with a huge boost for the last weeks of the season.
It remains to be seen if Saka or Martinelli will be able to play before the international break at the end of March. Otherwise, they will return to their respective hamstrings problems in April. There can be no overestimation of the importance of Saka, in particular. Despite being out of service since December 21, he still runs the classification of the Premier League for the big chances created this season.
Arsenal hopes that they will remain at a touching distance from Liverpool when these two players will return to the team, and that Saka and Martinelli could give an advantage to the club in recent weeks. These two players should be mentally and physically fresh, at least, after their extension of injury rupture.
